The future has been with humankind from the very beginning. We don’t know the specifics of our future, but we do know things about all futures. We can use this knowledge to help us prepare for the future we are facing.

We see the future through our own lens

Antiseptic surgery was rejected in the mid-1800s by many surgeons because it slowed them down. They viewed success through the lens of speed.

We are all biased. Optimists see a rosy future and pessimists see a dismal future. Liberals and conservatives certainly see different futures. The same is true with the young and old. There is no “one” future.

How can you sharpen your view of the “real” future? Consider the assumptions you are making and the knowledge you are using as you envision the future. Challenge all of them. You might see something you’ve missed.

You might even be so bold as to consider another’s point of view. Could it be more accurate?

Today is yesterday’s future

Mankind was on a technological tear in the 1960s and “The Jetsons” seemed to be a reasonable view of the future. Oops, I’m still waiting for my personal helicopter.

New technology always takes longer than expected by the enthusiasts but comes sooner than expected by the detractors. Social movements progress in fits and starts. Military plans rarely survive contact with the enemy.

Does that mean that history is useless? No, but we have to look beyond the facts and stories and dig into the “why” question. Spend time examining the past and analyze what might apply to today’s challenges. Was the 1918 pandemic just like the Covid-19 pandemic? No. But there were similarities that we can use. The 1918 pandemic came in waves as the virus changed. The Delta variant is the latest but probably not the last. Crowded conditions triggered hot spots. Keep your distance. It took four years before it “disappeared.” Be patient.

Why are some predictions right and others wrong? Don’t just look at the surface of history. Dig deeper. And, by the way, you will never get the deep story from today’s news outlets. “Factoids” are always incomplete.

There are no data from the future – we have to imagine it

In 1944 General Patton was the hero of the WW II Battle of the Bulge because he moved three Army divisions (about 45,000 soldiers) and needed equipment one hundred miles in forty-eight hours to stop a German offensive. Planning was key but did not start when the Germans attacked. It started long before because Patton imagined what he would do if he was in the German generals’ shoes. No data, just imagination in context.

Now, come to 2021. We’ve had a multi-decade love affair with “big data” and analytics. But if that is our lens into the future, we may be assuming more of a straight-line extension of today into the future than it warrants.

Data are important, but imagination is essential. No, not daydreaming, but using what we know about events and context to sketch the future in our minds and analyze it as it emerges.

The future will be both like and unlike the past

As we look into the future, we are always temped to use analogies. Sometimes they work and sometimes they lead us astray. Yes, Covid-19 is like the seasonal flu, but its differences are deadly. Yes, our entry into Afghanistan was like Vietnam, but certainly not the same. Yes, Amazon in 2021 is like Sears in the 1940s and ‘50s, but technology enhanced supply chains and real time communication did not yet exist.

Analogies are very helpful as you try to wrap your mind around an evolving future. Just be sure to analyze both the similarities and the differences.

We influence the future through today’s decisions

Peter Drucker, the late business sage and thinker, wrote about “the futurity of present decisions.” His position was that today’s decisions play out in the future and, therefore, determine the future. Past decisions about plastics are playing out in the pollution of the planet today. Today’s decisions about green energy will play out, both good and bad, in years to come.

Important decisions should always be accompanied with an analysis of the implication of the decision. Money spent today may imply less money available tomorrow. Or, it may imply having capabilities you will need in the future. Education often results in a better standard of living. But large student loans today imply loan repayment, with interest, tomorrow.

Look at your decisions and play out the consequences into the future. All decisions have consequences, some good and some bad. Don’t surprise your future self. Think it through.

Next:

A “futurity” checklist for your consideration.

Bill