Reader

The phrase, translated as “if you want peace, prepare for war” is found in the late 4th century writings of the Roman Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus. I came across it while reading a fascinating book, Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe by the historian Niall Ferguson. At one point along his journey through history he was explaining England’s political reaction to war following the end of World War I.

It’s not that they prepared for another war; it’s that they didn’t.

Because of economic pressures, a large national debt, and the need to restore the pound to its prewar value they reduced their defense budget by more than a third in the years 1922 to 1932. Neville Chamberlain admitted in 1934 that “it was impossible for us to contemplate a simultaneous war against Japan and Germany; we simply cannot afford the expenditures involved.”

The realities of war followed soon afterward.

“..it was impossible for us to contemplate…”

Really? Impossible? More likely it was that the decision makers were simply humans who ignored surprises that they should have seen coming. It’s too bad that Daniel Kahneman wasn’t around to help them.

Kahneman (1934 – 2024) won the 2003 Nobel Prize in Economic Science and is noted for his work in cognitive biases and heuristics. Three of these biases might have been in-play as England’s leaders found it “impossible” to prepare for another war.

• Overconfidence Bias: the tendency to overestimate one's abilities, the accuracy of one's predictions, and the likelihood of positive outcomes. This bias can lead to an underestimation of risks and an overestimation of one's control over events, leading to surprise when unexpected outcomes occur. Maybe they thought that appeasing Hitler was the easy way out.
• Planning Fallacy: individuals underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions. This leads to overly optimistic projections that can catch leaders unprepared when things do not go as expected. Maybe they thought they could react in time of trouble.
• Confirmation bias: “We won the last war and now is time for peace.” Maybe this led to an underestimation of risks and an overestimation of one's control over events, leading to surprise when unexpected outcomes occur.

Well, that was then; but we’re so much smarter now.

Again, really? How might ignoring the advice from the late 4th century apply in the civilian world. What “wars” did we not prepare for? Here are a few to consider.

• 1997-1998 Global Financial Crisis: The financial crisis that began in Asia and spread globally was precipitated by high levels of foreign debt, speculative investment, and lack of regulatory oversight. These were recognizable as risk factors beforehand.
• 2005 Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans: The vulnerabilities of New Orleans to flooding and hurricanes were well-documented, yet levees and other infrastructure were not sufficiently strengthened.
• 2008 Financial Crisis: The collapse of the housing bubble in the United States led to a global financial crisis. Warning signs, such as unsustainable mortgage lending practices and the overvaluation of bundled home loans, were ignored.
• 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: This environmental disaster was caused by a blowout at an offshore drilling rig, but the risks of deepwater drilling were known, and safety measures were insufficient to prevent the disaster.
• 2019-2021 COVID-19 Pandemic: The outbreak of a novel coronavirus leading to a global pandemic was a scenario for which health experts had long warned. Previous outbreaks (SARS, MERS, H1N1) highlighted the potential for a highly contagious and deadly virus to spread globally. Evidently it was “impossible to contemplate.”

Revisiting The Prepared Mind of a Leader

Jeanie Egmon and I published The Prepared Mind of a Leader in 2006. It explained eight skills that leaders need to understand and use if they are going to be prepared for their future and the future of their organization. Might I suggest that you emphasize three of them as you ponder the “war” that fits your version of “si vis pacem, para bellum.”

• Challenge: What assumptions are you making about your health, career, retirement, or organization. Are you ready if these assumptions “slip a bit?”
• Imagination: Although we like to have a positive mental attitude it makes sense to imagine what might go wrong so we can plan for it. Are you willing to imagine a cyber attack on your business? How about the loss of a key employee?
• Decide: Today’s decisions will play out in the future. Are you making decisions today that will protect you in the future. (Personal note here: Marg and I decided many years ago to get long-term health insurance. We want to stay healthy into the “war” of old age, but that may not be in the cards.)

And …….

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Second, our next 40-minute session of Directed Dialogues is scheduled for April 18th at 12:00 CT. We’ll explore some of the realities of AI. Join us on Zoom. No need to register – just show up. Here’s the link: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84381397493.

I hope you have a great week.

Bill