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Can we predict the future? No.

Can we anticipate the future? We’d better.

The late management thinker, Peter Drucker, wrote about considering the “futurity of present decisions” to anticipate changes that will come about because of decisions we are making today.

We are in the early stages of “the electric vehicle” age. EV cars, EV bicycles, EV scooters, and EV aircraft all have one thing in common – batteries.

Let me start by reproducing an old MindPrep article.

MindPrep 3/17/13: An Italian physicist, an English chemist, a German scientist, and Thomas Edison walk into a lab ….

No, this is not the start of a corny joke; it’s the progression of people who worked to bring you the lowly “disposable” battery that seems to be everywhere.

Alessandro Volta made the first battery in 1798 by stacking sheets of zinc, acid-moistened cardboard, and copper. In 1836 the English chemist John Frederic Daniell improved the battery by addressing the problem of corrosion.

In 1888 the German, Dr. Gasser, invented a “dry cell battery that resembled the carbon-zinc batteries of the 20th century. This was the first real practical battery and was used in 1898 when an enterprising fellow, Conrad Hubert, created the “electric hand torch” (aka, the flashlight).

Edison, always a lover of electricity, improved batteries for cars and trains in the early 1900s.

Alkaline batteries came to us in 1959 and a Swede figured out how to recharge batteries in 1960. The present-day lithium battery arrived in 1992 and now it seems that everything imaginable uses a battery: toys, flashlights, hearing aids, power tools, cars, clocks, watches, phones, MP3 players, etc.

And therein lies a present and future problem.

Over three billion “disposable” batteries are sold annually in the U.S. and the vast majority are simply thrown in the garbage. Car batteries have an official recycling channel; however, that is not the case for most of the other uses. We are encouraged to do the right thing (recycling) but may be tempted to take the easy way out and simply throw them in the garbage.

Now, why tell the story of the lowly battery? Well, it’s a simple story, covering over 300 years of slow change and it demonstrates the systems thinking truism of “every solution creates new problems.” The battery solved the problem of our need for portable power, but now we need to deal with the disposal problems it created.

Let’s update that article a bit.

The earlier article dealt with batteries used to power small electronic devices and the relatively simple problem of disposal.

Eleven years later we are dealing with batteries used to move us and our goods – the powerful and mysterious lithium-ion battery. Thinking of Drucker’s comments about the futurity of decisions, what are we seeing now?

• Increased demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. Where will we get them (China?) And what are the ecological implications of getting them out of the ground?
• The environmental impact of manufacturing. The production of these batteries is energy intensive and may generate significant greenhouse gas emissions.
• Energy grid challenges. Is our grid infrastructure (especially in older cities) capable of powering enough charging stations?
• Rising repair costs. EV cars must be handled differently in case repair is needed. The cost of a “fender bender” is no longer that of simply pounding out the dent. Sensors must be replaced, and battery replacement often costs more than the car is worth.
• Rising insurance costs. Because of the cost of repairing an EV vehicle, insurance rates are significantly higher.
• Secondary pollution and waste. Although tailpipe emissions are down, powerplant emissions are up. Also, there are concerns about the disposal and recycling of these large batteries.

What’s the point?

Go back to the top. We have to work at anticipating the future and getting an early start on the new problems our solutions create. Practice critical thinking and consider both the intended and unintended consequences of our decisions.

Two favors

First, if you like our weekly musings, please pass them on to friends and colleagues. They can get on our mailing list (which is never shared) by clicking HERE.

Second, our next 40 minute session of Directed Dialogues is scheduled for February 15th at 12:00 CT. You can learn more and get the Zoom link right HERE. I’m hoping to build a “virtual salon” of people who like to think about current and emerging issues.

Cheers,

Bill